As of writing, Democrats and Republicans are once again in heated debate over funding the government. Only two days out from a shutdown, there has yet to be a deal announced to keep the government open. However, there has been recent reporting suggesting a number of solutions that are being discussed. What is apparent though on the Republican front: they expect Democrats to capitulate.
In the House, Rep. Paul Ryan is planning to introduce a funding bill that would keep the government open until March 23rd. This is notably after Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, agreed to have an immigration deal voted on, which has not made progress yet towards a solution. The bill in the House includes funding for the military until the end of the year, with an increase in funding from the previous year’s levels. This is in spite of the red-line drawn by Democratic leadership refusing to vote on another continuing resolution unless it included a provision that took care of DREAMers, or that increases in military spending would require commesurate increases in domestic spending to get Democratic votes.
So once again, the government is on the brink, but this time, GOP leadership believes Democrats will cave under pressure as they did under the previous shutdown, where they accepted a funding deal in exchange for 6 years of funding the children’s health insurance program. There are important differences this time that will likely affect the outcome differently than previously.
In the previous shutdown, Democratic representatives were unsure how the liberal base would react to a government shutdown, and who would receive the blame if a shutdown occurred. We saw that Democrats panicked and struck a deal before the effects of the shutdown were really even felt. We also saw that as that weekend came to a close, that data showing blame on the Republican Congress had just started to be represented in polling data. However, Democrats took the deal on CHIP, and delayed the fight on DACA. As a result, much of the base was furious, saying that they had the leverage to hold out for more.
This time however, there is no distraction to sidetrack negotiations. Nothing is higher on the docket for the left as a priority than immigration. This is it, this is the fight for the future of DACA recipients, and so far Schumer and Pelosi seem to realize this. If House Democrats want to keep their base energized, and engaged, and want to keep their seats, they’ll need to do more than sign a CR, they’ll need to hold out for what the people want, or come November, they could lose their seats to challengers from further left.
As of now, a shutdown seems the best way to preserve momentum for the left, hopefully they won’t let this opportunity to use the little leverage they have, go to waste.
/rant 