China’s GDP Growth Moderation: Understanding the Global Impact and Reasons for Optimism

Recent reports of China’s lower GDP growth have sparked discussions about the potential implications for the global economy. While the moderation in China’s economic growth may raise concerns, taking a nuanced view reveals several reasons for optimism. In this article, we explore the factors contributing to China’s economic slowdown, examine its potential impact on the global stage, and highlight the reasons to believe that the trend won’t lead to significant damage globally.

1. Understanding China’s GDP Slowdown:

China’s economy has been on a remarkable growth trajectory over the past few decades. However, as the country transitions from an export-oriented economy to a more consumption-driven model, GDP growth has naturally moderated. This shift is a part of China’s long-term strategy to achieve sustainable and balanced growth.

2. Global Economic Interconnectedness:

While China is undeniably a significant player in the global economy, the world’s economic landscape is now characterized by interdependence. China’s moderation in growth is unlikely to trigger a widespread economic downturn due to the diversified nature of global trade and investment ties.

3. Market Resilience and Adaptability:

Global markets have shown remarkable resilience in the face of economic challenges, and investors have become more adept at navigating fluctuations. Markets have previously demonstrated the ability to adjust to changing circumstances, mitigating potential impacts.

4. Chinese Government’s Measures:

The Chinese government has a track record of employing proactive measures to manage economic slowdowns. Targeted fiscal and monetary policies can effectively support domestic demand and stabilize economic performance.

5. Technological Advancements and Innovation:

China’s advancements in technology and innovation are reshaping various industries. As the economy transitions to a more knowledge-driven model, new sectors and opportunities are emerging, potentially offsetting the slowdown in traditional sectors.

6. Resilience of Global Supply Chains:

China plays a central role in many global supply chains. However, disruptions in recent years have prompted companies to diversify their sourcing and manufacturing bases. This diversification could cushion the impact of China’s economic slowdown on global supply chains.

7. Collaborative Efforts and Multilateral Cooperation:

The interconnectedness of global economies has encouraged countries to foster multilateral cooperation to address economic challenges collectively. Collaborative efforts can enhance the ability to respond to economic headwinds and support global economic stability.

Conclusion:

While China’s recent reports of lower GDP growth may raise eyebrows, it is essential to take a measured view of the situation. China’s economic slowdown is a part of its long-term strategy to achieve sustainable growth and transition to a consumption-driven economy. The global economy is far more resilient and interconnected than ever before, reducing the likelihood of significant damage from China’s moderation in growth.

Investor adaptability, technological advancements, supportive government measures, and collaborative efforts among nations all contribute to reasons for optimism. As the world navigates the uncertainties of a changing economic landscape, the belief that China’s GDP trend will remain positive and that its impact on the global stage will be manageable reinforces the outlook for a stable and sustainable global economic future.

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Unprepared for the Solar Storms: The Looming Threat of Increased Solar Activity on Aging Infrastructure

As the sun enters a new period of heightened solar activity, experts warn that we may not be adequately prepared to handle the potential consequences. The last period of increased solar activity, known as the solar maximum, highlighted vulnerabilities in our infrastructure, which have not been adequately addressed since then. In this article, we explore the upcoming period of increased solar activity, the risks it poses to our aging infrastructure, and the potential impact on power grids, communication systems, and the economy.

The Solar Cycle and Solar Maximum:

The sun operates on a roughly 11-year cycle, with periods of increased and decreased solar activity. During the solar maximum, solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) become more frequent, releasing a surge of solar energy and particles towards Earth. While the solar maximum presents awe-inspiring displays of auroras, it also carries the potential for detrimental effects on our technological infrastructure.

Risks to Aging Infrastructure:

1. Power Grid Vulnerabilities:

The power grid is particularly susceptible to solar storms, as geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can be induced in long transmission lines. These GICs can overload transformers and other equipment, leading to widespread blackouts. According to a report by the National Academy of Sciences, a severe solar storm could cause prolonged blackouts affecting tens of millions of people, with the recovery time spanning from weeks to months.

2. Communication Disruptions:

Solar storms can interfere with radio signals, satellite communications, and GPS systems. This interference can disrupt essential communication networks used in emergency services, aviation, and navigation, leading to potential safety risks and economic losses.

3. Infrastructure Costs and Damage:

The potential damage to infrastructure from solar storms can result in substantial economic consequences. The repair and replacement costs for damaged transformers, power lines, and communication equipment can reach billions of dollars.

Unaddressed Vulnerabilities Since the Last Solar Maximum:

Despite the lessons learned from the last solar maximum in 2013, our infrastructure vulnerabilities remain largely unaddressed. The increasing reliance on technology and interconnected systems only amplifies the potential risks.

1. Aging Power Grid:

Many power grids are aging, and the necessary upgrades and fortifications to withstand solar storms have been slow to materialize. The lack of investment in grid resilience puts us at greater risk of widespread blackouts.

2. Unprotected Communication Systems:

Satellite systems, GPS networks, and communication infrastructures remain vulnerable to solar storms due to inadequate protective measures. The potential disruptions in these critical systems can have cascading effects on transportation, financial services, and emergency response.

3. Economic and Social Impact:

The economic and social consequences of prolonged blackouts and communication disruptions cannot be underestimated. The impact on industries, businesses, and daily life could be severe, with potential ripple effects on global trade and supply chains.

Preparedness and Mitigation:

To adequately prepare for the upcoming period of increased solar activity, urgent actions are required.

1. Infrastructure Upgrades:

Investing in upgrades and fortifications of power grids and communication systems can enhance resilience against solar storms. Utilizing advanced materials and technologies can reduce the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.

2. Space Weather Monitoring:

Enhancing space weather monitoring and early warning systems can provide timely alerts and enable utilities and agencies to take preventive measures.

3. Public Awareness and Preparedness:

Raising public awareness about the potential impact of solar storms is crucial. Encouraging preparedness measures at individual and community levels can help mitigate the effects of blackouts and communication disruptions.

As the sun enters a period of increased solar activity, our aging infrastructure faces significant risks. The unaddressed vulnerabilities since the last solar maximum leave us ill-prepared to handle the potential consequences. The risks to power grids, communication systems, and the economy underscore the urgent need for infrastructure upgrades, space weather monitoring, and public awareness. By taking proactive measures and investing in resilience, we can navigate the upcoming solar storms with greater preparedness and safeguard our technological infrastructure from the potential impact of increased solar activity.

Climate-Related Disasters and the Threat of Exhausted Aid Funds: Navigating the Rising Tides of Climate Change

As climate change intensifies, the world is witnessing an alarming increase in climate-related disasters. From devastating hurricanes and wildfires to prolonged droughts and floods, these catastrophic events are straining humanitarian efforts and aid funds. The continuous stream of climate-related disasters poses a significant challenge, potentially depleting aid funds faster than they can be replenished. In this article, we explore the pressing issue of exhausted aid funds and how climate change could exacerbate this problem, underscoring the urgency for proactive measures and sustainable solutions.

The Escalating Cycle of Climate-Related Disasters:

Climate change is unleashing a vicious cycle of escalating disasters. As global temperatures rise, extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, leading to a surge in climate-related disasters. The increasing occurrence of hurricanes, cyclones, wildfires, and other calamities places an immense burden on humanitarian organizations and aid agencies worldwide.

1. Strained Humanitarian Efforts:

With a continuous stream of climate-related disasters, humanitarian organizations are stretched to their limits. Providing immediate assistance, emergency relief, and long-term recovery efforts require substantial financial resources. The constant influx of disasters challenges the capacity of aid organizations to respond effectively and promptly.

2. Depletion of Aid Funds:

The demand for aid in the wake of climate-related disasters can deplete funds allocated for humanitarian purposes rapidly. With disaster after disaster, aid funds are exhausted, leaving little room for proactive measures or preparedness for the next event.

3. Delayed Replenishment:

The replenishment of aid funds often relies on donations from governments, private organizations, and individuals. However, the frequency of climate-related disasters could lead to donor fatigue, delaying the replenishment process and exacerbating the issue of insufficient funds during subsequent disasters.

Climate Change as a Catalyst:

Climate change acts as a catalyst, magnifying the impacts of natural disasters and escalating the exhaustion of aid funds.

1. Amplified Disasters:

The warming climate intensifies the ferocity of hurricanes, wildfires, and floods, leading to more significant damages and higher recovery costs. The severity and frequency of these events put a tremendous strain on humanitarian resources.

2. Displacement and Migration:

As climate change disrupts ecosystems and weather patterns, it can trigger mass displacement and migration. People forced to leave their homes due to climate-induced disasters require assistance, further straining humanitarian resources.

3. Growing Vulnerability:

Communities vulnerable to climate change are often ill-equipped to cope with the aftermath of disasters. The lack of resources and infrastructure in vulnerable regions increases the demand for aid, putting additional pressure on aid funds.

Proactive Measures and Sustainable Solutions:

To address the challenge of exhausted aid funds and the escalating impact of climate-related disasters, proactive measures and sustainable solutions are crucial.

1. Climate Adaptation and Resilience:

Investing in climate adaptation and resilience measures can reduce the impacts of disasters and lower the demand for aid funds. Implementing early warning systems, building climate-resilient infrastructure, and supporting sustainable agriculture can enhance communities’ ability to withstand climate shocks.

2. Global Collaboration:

International cooperation and collaboration are vital in addressing the global challenge of climate change and its consequences. Strengthening global partnerships can pool resources and expertise to build more robust response mechanisms.

3. Long-Term Planning:

Shifting from a reactive approach to a proactive, long-term planning strategy is essential. Investing in disaster risk reduction, preparedness, and mitigation measures can save lives, reduce damages, and alleviate the burden on aid funds.

Conclusion:

The continuous stream of climate-related disasters is placing unprecedented pressure on aid funds and humanitarian efforts. Climate change acts as a force multiplier, amplifying the impacts of disasters and exacerbating the issue of exhausted aid funds. Urgent action is needed to embrace proactive measures and sustainable solutions to enhance climate resilience, reduce disaster impacts, and strengthen global collaboration. By investing in climate adaptation, long-term planning, and community resilience, the world can better navigate the rising tides of climate change and safeguard humanitarian resources to support those in need in the face of ongoing and future climate-related disasters.

The Looming Threat: How Fine-Tuned Models Pose Dangers in Writing Malicious Code and Phishing Messages

The rapid advancement of AI and machine learning has unlocked unprecedented potential for innovation and automation. Among the groundbreaking developments are fine-tuned models, which have shown remarkable accuracy in various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, this newfound power also carries significant risks. In this article, we explore the dangers of how fine-tuned models can be exploited to write malicious code and craft highly convincing phishing messages, posing severe threats to cybersecurity and the digital landscape.

1. The Emergence of Fine-Tuned Models:

Fine-tuned models, built on large pre-trained language models, have become increasingly powerful in understanding and generating human-like text. These models can be customized for specific tasks, making them ideal tools for various applications, including content creation, translation, and sentiment analysis.

2. The Dark Side of Fine-Tuned Models:

While fine-tuned models have enabled impressive advancements, they have also raised concerns about their potential misuse. The same language generation capabilities that fuel innovation can be leveraged for malicious purposes, jeopardizing cybersecurity and user safety.

3. Writing Malicious Code:

Cybercriminals could exploit fine-tuned models to craft malicious code, taking advantage of the models’ natural language generation to obfuscate and distribute harmful software. This poses a significant threat to computer systems, network security, and data integrity.

4. Crafting Convincing Phishing Messages:

Phishing attacks are a common vector for cybercrime, and fine-tuned models add a new dimension to this threat. Bad actors could use these models to create highly convincing phishing messages, deceiving users into revealing sensitive information or downloading malware.

5. Impersonation and Social Engineering:

With fine-tuned models, attackers can mimic the writing styles and language patterns of individuals or organizations, enabling sophisticated impersonation attacks. These tactics can lead to data breaches, financial fraud, and reputational damage.

6. Exploiting Psychological Triggers:

Fine-tuned models can be tailored to capitalize on psychological triggers, such as fear, urgency, or authority. This manipulation can amplify the effectiveness of phishing messages, making users more susceptible to falling victim to scams.

7. Strengthening Cybersecurity Measures:

As the threat landscape evolves, cybersecurity measures must adapt to counter the risks posed by fine-tuned models. This includes employing robust email filtering, authentication protocols, and educating users about the dangers of phishing and malware.

8. Responsible AI Use and Regulation:

As AI technology becomes more pervasive, developers and platforms must implement ethical considerations and transparency in AI deployment. Regulatory frameworks can help ensure that AI is used responsibly, with an eye towards mitigating its potential for misuse.

The transformative capabilities of fine-tuned models have ushered in a new era of AI-driven innovation, revolutionizing natural language processing and content generation. However, with this progress comes a darker side, as malicious actors can exploit these models to write malicious code and craft highly convincing phishing messages. The implications for cybersecurity and user safety are significant, demanding proactive measures to counter these threats. Strengthening cybersecurity measures, educating users, and implementing responsible AI practices are crucial steps in safeguarding against the dangers of fine-tuned models. As we navigate the evolving landscape of AI technology, a collective effort is required to strike a balance between harnessing the power of AI for good and guarding against its potential for malicious use. By embracing responsible AI deployment and fostering a cybersecurity-conscious culture, we can fortify the digital landscape and preserve the integrity and safety of our interconnected world.

Worldcoin: Unraveling the Controversial Aspects of Sam Altman’s Startup

Sam Altman’s Worldcoin startup has garnered significant attention in the world of cryptocurrency, promising to distribute universal basic income (UBI) through its unique method of biometric identification. However, amidst the excitement surrounding the venture, a closer examination raises concerns about its feasibility and the potential ramifications. In this article, we explore the controversial aspects of Worldcoin, shedding light on why some view it as a bad and questionable idea.

1. Centralization Concerns:

Worldcoin’s reliance on biometric identification raises red flags regarding centralization and user privacy. The use of biometric data as a means of identification can lead to a concentration of power and control in the hands of a few, compromising the principles of decentralization inherent in blockchain technology.

2. Security and Data Vulnerability:

Biometric data is highly sensitive and poses security risks if mishandled or breached. The storage and management of such data require robust security measures to protect users from potential identity theft and other cybersecurity threats.

3. Ethical Implications:

The concept of linking universal basic income to biometric identification raises ethical questions about the surveillance-like nature of the system. Critics argue that it may lead to a loss of personal autonomy and expose vulnerable individuals to potential exploitation.

4. Technological Feasibility:

Implementing a global biometric identification system on a blockchain at scale presents significant technical challenges. The complexities involved in accurately verifying identities across diverse populations and regions may hinder the project’s practicality.

5. Socioeconomic Disparities:

Worldcoin’s approach assumes universal access to biometric identification, which may not be feasible in regions with limited technological infrastructure or marginalized populations. This approach risks exacerbating existing socioeconomic disparities.

6. Dependency on a Select Few:

Worldcoin’s reliance on individuals physically traveling to distribute UBI raises questions about the accessibility of the benefits, particularly for vulnerable and marginalized communities. Such a system may inadvertently exclude those who face geographical or mobility constraints.

7. Regulatory Hurdles:

The use of biometric identification for a universal basic income program is likely to encounter significant regulatory hurdles and privacy concerns. Navigating the complex web of legal frameworks and data protection regulations may hinder Worldcoin’s implementation.

While the concept of Sam Altman’s Worldcoin startup has generated intrigue and excitement within the cryptocurrency community, it is not without its detractors and controversies. The centralization concerns, security risks, ethical implications, and technological feasibility pose significant challenges. Moreover, the potential exacerbation of socioeconomic disparities and regulatory hurdles add to the skepticism surrounding the project’s viability.

As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, it is essential to approach new ideas and ventures with a critical and cautious mindset. While the ambition to provide universal basic income through innovative means is commendable, it is crucial to thoroughly address the concerns and ramifications before embarking on such ventures. As Worldcoin progresses, it must navigate the intricate web of challenges to demonstrate its viability as a responsible and impactful initiative in the world of cryptocurrency and social welfare.

The Terra-Luna Crisis and the Inflationary Ripples: Examining the Impact of Stablecoins

In the dynamic world of digital currencies, stablecoins have emerged as a compelling alternative to traditional cryptocurrencies due to their pegged value to fiat currencies or other stable assets. With a market capitalization exceeding hundreds of billions, stablecoins have recently faced unprecedented challenges, exemplified by the Terra-Luna collapse, igniting concerns about their potential impact on inflation dynamics. This article delves into the complexities of stablecoins, focusing on the Terra-Luna crisis and its implications for inflation, presenting both potential benefits and risks.

Stablecoins are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by pegging them to a reserve asset, such as the US dollar or a basket of commodities. Tether (USDT), for instance, is one of the most well-known fiat-backed stablecoins. The mechanism behind stablecoins involves collateralization, algorithmic adjustments, or a combination of both. This unique characteristic has led to their growing popularity, as users seek to escape the extreme volatility associated with conventional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

As stablecoins’ adoption grows, economists and policymakers have become increasingly concerned about their potential effects on inflation dynamics. The Terra-Luna crisis provides a stark reminder of the risks posed by stablecoins. The collapse of Terra, a prominent algorithmic stablecoin pegged to the value of Luna, triggered a cascade of events leading to liquidity issues and increased volatility in the broader digital assets market. This event serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of the implications of stablecoins on inflation.

1. Inflationary Pressures:

a. Increased Money Supply: Stablecoins, especially those that are algorithmically managed, can expand the money supply rapidly if their demand surges. In a scenario where stablecoins become widely adopted as a medium of exchange and store of value, a substantial increase in the money supply might stimulate aggregate demand and lead to inflationary pressures.

b. Competing with Fiat Currency: Stablecoins’ ease of use, fast transactions, and borderless nature could lead to a shift away from fiat currencies. As more individuals and businesses prefer stablecoins for transactions, the demand for traditional currencies may decline, potentially weakening the central bank’s ability to control monetary policy and respond to economic fluctuations.

c. Speculative Behavior: Speculative trading in stablecoins could exacerbate price volatility, leading to potential asset bubbles. As speculators flock to stablecoins seeking quick returns, the inflated demand for these digital assets might impact the broader financial markets, contributing to inflationary pressures.

d. Isolation Risk: In the event of a collapse or defunct stablecoin, particularly fiat-backed ones, there is a risk that they could become cordoned off from the economy. This isolation could disrupt financial markets, cause liquidity shortages, and result in inflationary shocks if not appropriately managed.

2. Deflationary Forces:

a. Price Stability: The primary purpose of stablecoins is to provide a reliable store of value and act as a medium of exchange. In doing so, stablecoins can counteract the inherent volatility associated with cryptocurrencies, which could result in more predictable and stable prices for goods and services. Price stability, in turn, might mitigate inflationary pressures.

b. Economic Efficiency: The use of stablecoins could enhance economic efficiency by reducing transaction costs and enabling faster cross-border payments. These benefits could lead to increased productivity and economic growth, which could, in the long term, temper inflationary trends.

As stablecoins gain traction, the regulatory landscape surrounding these digital assets becomes increasingly important. Striking the right balance between fostering innovation and safeguarding against potential risks is crucial for policymakers.

1. Clear Legal Framework: To mitigate potential adverse effects on inflation, regulatory authorities must establish a clear legal framework for stablecoins. This framework should address issues related to reserve requirements, anti-money laundering (AML) measures, consumer protection, and ensure compliance with existing monetary policies.
2. Surveillance Mechanisms: Real-time monitoring and surveillance of stablecoin transactions are vital to prevent any illicit activities and to assess their impact on the broader economy. Collaborative efforts between regulatory bodies and technology providers will be essential in developing effective surveillance mechanisms.
3. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): Governments are exploring the idea of issuing CBDCs to maintain control over monetary policy and safeguard against the risks posed by privately issued stablecoins. CBDCs could coexist with stablecoins and offer a digital representation of fiat currencies, giving authorities more oversight and control.

The Terra-Luna crisis serves as a stark reminder of the potential impact stablecoins can have on inflation and the broader financial system. While offering attractive advantages, stablecoins also pose significant risks, including increased money supply, isolation risks, and speculative behavior that could exacerbate inflationary pressures. To navigate this uncharted territory effectively, policymakers must establish a robust regulatory framework that fosters innovation while addressing potential inflationary challenges. As the world embraces the digital currency revolution, careful consideration and proactive measures are essential to ensure a stable and sustainable financial future.

A Time and A Place

When I was young, I grew up playing civilization games, and watching my dad play them. I have always been a fan of grand strategy, politics, economics, and technological advancements. I was fascinated by how in human history, even after inventing all the pieces and discoveries required to make certain advances, how slowly technology has advanced until recent history. My father, when he played nearly any civilization game, plays the same way, he goes for early science, and then typically goes for the ability to use a republic as his form of government, then goes for a transition into democracy. When he plays, he plays as America, or as Rome or Greece. It doesn’t really matter what he does around that, or what method he uses to win in the end, but that’s the path that he goes down nearly every time. I always thought that it was fascinating that his ideological beliefs led him to never touch communism, fascism, monarchy, even in a video game, when it would lead to an advantage in the strategem he was using to win.

Ironically, this is definitely a form of toxic nationalism, which he would also stay away from, but he would certainly say that a democratic-republic is the best form of government, hands-down, no contest, and that any other form of government is in some way fundamentally wrong. Of course, when I asked him about these other forms of government, why they were wrong, or did not work, I would get non-sequitur answers, such as “because the communists in China massacred a bunch of people”, or “because they starved their people”, or “the Italian fascists were the bad guys of WWII”. While I could see that those governments did bad things to their people, it just never really explained my fundamental questions about their governments, which was how they functioned, and how their functioning could be “wrong” or “bad” in such a fundamental way. To me, all forms of government had sinned, and that governments like the USA’s were also responsible for atrocities.

It even seemed that he couldn’t accept a really basic cognitive dissonance that he had about monarchies and the monarchical language with which he would describe God, and even when I would point out this inconsistency, seemed immovable about keeping both true, that God was a good king, but there are no good monarchies, and that the system was inherently evil and tyrannical. I could never understand the fanatical devotion to his ideal of democracy and republicanism, which has morphed into something unrecognizable.

The inconsistency however, sparked my journey to look back through history, to find what actually makes a good leader. Who were the “good kings”, the “benevolent dictators”, and the “evil prime ministers”? What makes for stable government? What prevents corruption? How do we even judge such things through the lenses of history? What causes empires to fall, and for famine to overtake idealism?

I believe that the best form of government for a country is based on a combination of factors: the available resources, the level of infrastructure development, the level of technological development, and the objectives of the government. Each form of government has its drawbacks that can put it at risk of structural collapse, but with the appropriate combination of applied concepts, most of those risks can be mitigated.

For example, in a government that wishes to have a highly educated populace, with a number of high-value services, such as scientist, doctors, lawyers, programmers, engineers, and others, you would need to have a government that allows for the free exchange of ideas with few barriers, and would allow for educational support to increase the likelihood of any given citizen going into one of those professions. However, the free exchange of information allows for common people to organize, a drawback for a single-power state, as it allows for the creation of rival factions.

On the other hand, if the goal of the state was to generate wealth, you would want to have a government that strongly considers the interests of corporations, though without appropriate redistribution, and the ability for some upward mobility and support of the working populace, you could easily end up exploiting your working class too much. This is often the temptation, to drain resources in the short term, but this is always at the expense of long-term growth, and a nuanced understanding of economies tells us that poverty is a drag on society, and that you actually want economic policies that pull people from poverty to a middle-class standard to keep them content, and to ensure that they are more productive.

Because of this, sometimes the desires of a state and the ability of a state to meet those objectives are limited by the technology available. A government that had some flaws in it, such as difficulty managing bureaucracy, or distribution and allocation of resources across a state, or the necessity to divert segments of the economy towards defense, could work at a different point in history, where the circumstances have changed, such as technology, location, surrounding cultures, and societal norms. An attempt at a centralized state may work on a very small scale, but become impossible to manage without the advanced infrastructure of reliable globalized transportation that has only recently become available by land, air and sea.

It is through this lens which I look at the histories of these political empires, on scales large and small. To see what works, and what does not, and to consider counterfactual scenarios, where we can consider what things could have made it work. It is a somewhat dangerous task, I must admit, to ask questions like, “What would have made Mao’s communist China work better?” Because we must also consider the negative consequences it would have had for our own way of life now, such as a much earlier rise of China as a global power had it had access to the better agricultural and manufacturing techniques of the west just a few decades earlier, or if the state had expanded its educational system earlier, or simply had a better system of distributing resources. Would communism have had the power to sweep the globe?

It is my hope that by looking at the mistakes of governance and their successes through the ages that when the next wave of governmental experimentation occurs during the next wave of frontier exploration (space colonization of course), that we will have a more complete view of governing, and will be ready to evolve governance to its next stage. I predict this will be a hybrid model of governance which will include technology and human oversight as a part of its fundamental functions.

Technology and Integrated Education

I’ve had this idea for a long time now, but really only recently had the language and the knowledge to put into words the idea. It is part of my overall treatise on power and core governing principles, but as I have difficulty getting myself to write long books all at once, a series of notes and essays to later be compiled is a much more straightforward task.

I have for a long time thought that the US system of government was flawed. When I was younger, in the early 00’s, I was excited for a future where we could use technology to assist in governance, and could eventually make life better for everyone. Now, I still desire that future, but I have simultaneously become frustrated by the amount of technology that we have continued to develop, but still have a massive lack of technological integration into our government.

I even understood, back then, that technology has vulnerabilities, and that developing a complex infrastructure to incorporate into society would take time, to work out security, and to perform testing. The systems would need to be well-planned, so they could use cutting-edge technology at the time that would, with some effort, be able to be upgraded in the future, or would be able to be effective before becoming outmoded for a long time.

Alas, there have been few public works projects on this scale, with the most advanced typically being attempts at large-scale transportation infrastructure (trans-continental high-speed rail and the hyperloop are notable examples of this).

By now in our history, I would have expected for technology to have radically shifted how governments run. Now, the coronavirus is pushing some aspects of governance and society at large to be moved forward by technological needs, this fast pace of change carries with it great risk, as there is little time to deal with security risks, or to appropriately fund public projects to deal with the issues that we are faced with, instead being forced to rely upon the solutions that corporations have provided, cobbling together a patchwork system of applications, and systems that are becoming increasingly cumbersome and incompatible with each other.

A good example of this is education. I know that I am a pretty decent student when it comes to self-directed learning (it’s how I’ve managed to continue learning so much without access to formal classrooms), but I know that many of the people that I have met my age are not. I know how to find information that I am searching for, and even often how to get around financial barriers to that information, and I am so relentlessly curious that I won’t stop searching for information until my questions are answered, including those I didn’t know that I had until finding the information that answered them. With the power of search engines and the open internet, a person could become an expert in a particular niche, diving into their topic of interest, and gain a high-level mastery of it in just a couple of years, without ever setting foot in a classroom. Without some sort of guiding curriculum, most people’s educations’ would be limited to their areas of interest, leading to what would be an incomplete education, but these are simple considerations that are workable.

When I was in middle school, I was part of a magnet program for rocketry, but the program’s approach to interdisciplinary studies was genius, and I could see it, even in it. Across each of our classes, we had connections to each of the other classes, and at the end of each quarter, had an integrated project, a single project across multiple subjects that connected the things that we learned into something practical and interesting. One example of this was our pyramid project. I don’t quite recall all of the elements of the project, but I recall that it involved physics and engineering to make traps, a presentation that explained our pyramid in the context of history, and the pyramid had to be made to specific mathematical specifications. We had a number of these projects over the years, and each one brought to life the things that we were learning, instead of just learning a series of facts for each class, separated by subject and intention.

I knew that this was important. I had been interested in psychological hacking at this point in my life, and had been doing research on mind hacks, figuring that learning these hacks early in life would allow me to leverage them for the rest of my life. One of the things many of the resources I read taught you is how to create mnemonics, as they are often described as incredibly important tools for remembering things. You connect a new idea to an existing idea, to create multiple neural pathways to that idea in the newly created memory in your brain. Many of the things I read created arbitrary mnemonic systems that, while useful for remembering specific facts, I found became actually cumbersome. However, after reading enough of them, I found that along with reading some more reputable published sources on learning and education, I was able to get to the heart of the issue, and the jigsaw pieces fell into place.

Everything is connected. All of it. This was further reinforced by my interest in economics, and how I realized that economics ends up being a study of everything, as everything, from charity work building farms in Africa, to high-energy physics research, to steel production in China, to the latest viral video trends and creator content, is all within the realm of economics, and connections can be drawn between these elements.

Students don’t care about their learning when it seems that there is no connection to their everyday lives, or their understanding to how a piece of information will be useful in the future. Now, it’s not that those facts won’t be useful, and in fact, things that I thought would be completely useless to me in my adulthood have ended up being surprisingly useful, but if you had given me a few examples of where something like this is actually useful, instead of simple, silly, and unrealistic word problems, or just insisting that it would be useful eventually, I might have been able to more easily integrate the piece of information, instead of rote memorization. Also by connecting pieces of information that are connected, you build a more complete fundamental understanding of the world that is easier to build on.

I could see that the future would be a combination of integrated learning to create a broad but solid foundation, with more advanced integrated learning techniques being able to convey more advanced information at a younger age, we would be able to compress more education, with the other piece being narrow, interest-driven learning, essentially allowing children to begin finding their field of specialization early on. Unfortunately this has not happened, and while the amount that kids know by the time they get out of high school has certainly increased from where it was 20 years ago, much of it is not the result of more advanced curricula, but by absorbing things that they learn on the internet, the focused self-directed branch solely, and not guided by the educational system itself.

There is much that can be done to streamline costs and even the educational gap between wealthier districts and poorer ones, notably a free federal education system. Such a system, I imagine, would be able to be enrolled in completely digitally, with in-person/online supplementary facilities, perhaps placed in already existing infrastructure, where students could advance at their own pace, which would include classes and educational resources for students from K-12 and would include all of the courses required for at least an undergraduate degree, and continuing education for that degree for free through this federalized digital system, and would allow for students to move at their own pace outside of the typical fall/spring school year.

Having a “federal college” would be difficult, you need to create the classes, the curriculum, the paths of advancement, the exams, standards, and determining the requirements for degrees, building the digital infrastructure, and having the supplemental human resources for the program to assist children. Of course this college would probably be seen as less reputable, at least off the bat, so other schools would need to be phased out, simply making it an option for students. By having a digital infrastructure like Blackboard that students could access (accommodations including devices and basic internet service should be provided to low-income families), you provide more broad access to education.

Another advantage to having access to digital resources, and to allow for students to go at their own pace, you can track how quickly students are moving through courses each year, you can analyze when they are doing school work, and adjust resources. This also gives the federal government access to a depth of information on their future labor force, allowing them to more accurately project what the workforce will look like in the next decade, allowing for more informed policy decisions to be made. It can also be used to analyze how students prefer to learn. Do they do more work at night? Do they take the summer off? How quickly do they move through education if unimpeded by the barrier of the school year that we put in place to create even “batches” of students, like a factory.

The real test of such a system is how young will the average age of a degree-earner be? Even with increasingly difficult and dense curricula early on in life, we could still see the average age of a degree-earner drop steadily (or quite quickly for the most advanced students). Without the learning loss of summer and winter breaks, we could see people regularly earning their bachelor’s degrees by the time they are 18, and those who still seek it, but are slower, instead of being forced out of schools, can take things at their own pace and still find success with few financial barriers, and would provide an opportunity for those who were blocked out of higher education to catch-up, or to gain access to ambitions that were seen as out of reach.

Some Knock-on Effects of COVID-19 to Look Out For

So as the coronavirus COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic this week, and has now begun to severely affect the global economy. Sure that today things seem to have started to recover just a little bit from their lows this weeks. However, we should take that touch of green with a grain of salt, and should consider some of the other things that are going on in the economy before saying that everything is going to be fine. The first thing that we need to look out for is the employment rate, which is likely to fall in the following months due to the lack of revenue being pulled in by various sectors of the economy. This would be something that could be managed if there weren’t other factors that we were pushing against.

The main concern of mine is the sheer amount of  debt that exists on both the consumer’s heads, as well as the record amount of corporate debt that has been taken on, a lot of it at junk quality, forcing higher interest rates for companies to have to repay. At the same time, many of the major companies are trying to brace investors for bad news for this quarter at least. Of course, we all know what goes first on the balance sheet when profits are squeezed, labor costs, resulting in fewer jobs, and fewer hours worked for employees.

Now, when people who need to work over 40 hours a week lose their jobs, or whose hours are cut are forced to contend with the huge amount of consumer debt that already exists, with roughly a third of it already in default, and on top of that, the new method of measuring FICO scores is set to come out later this year, it will become impossible for the consumers to, at-large, finance their lives. This will make keeping their heads above water on things like car payments, mortgage payments, credit cards, and even necessities difficult for people to afford.

Now, the worst of these effects are going to be diffused through some parts of the economy, and will take some time for different levels of the economy to feel those effects, but we can start to see the major impacts past share prices once the earnings reports for Q1 begin to roll in for major corporations, especially those with large manufacturing bases in China. Once these reports roll in, companies will need to start taking actions to keep company values afloat, cutting jobs, hours, reducing production capacity, closing factories, selling off assets, or perhaps actions that could anger shareholders, such as  suspending dividend payments, though the fear that shareholders inspire may prevent that last action from being feasible in most cases.

Things are going to get worse before they get better, and the effects just from the beginning of this year to now may not be truly felt until late summer/fall. If you are a poor consumer, I highly suggest saving what you can now, and buying extra canned goods for the next few months of shopping trips, because there are so many people who even a small interruption in their work schedule could result in economic disaster for their household. Good luck out there to everyone, stay safe, and wash those hands!

Some thoughts on the Coronavirus and China’s Economy

Well, it seems that the coronavirus is going to have more impact than what a lot of people initially suspected. Many people started by comparing the outbreak to that of SARS in the early 2000’s. There were a few differences in what set the two apart that are really important though. First, there is the rate of infections from COVID-19, which is significantly higher than that of SARS. Secondly, the rate of deaths from the new virus is significantly lower. Third, the incubation period and the infectious period  for this virus seem to overlap. Together, this makes for a virus that transmits quickly, is transmittable even if a person is not yet showing symptoms, and is capable of being spread easily. Now, the low death rate for the virus is certainly a thing to be thankful for, as a virus with more severe symptoms could have resulted in many more lives lost.

Thankfully, it seems that the virus is on the decline, at least slightly, though removal of quarantine restrictions could cause the rate of infections to bump back up. As a result of the quarantines and sickness though, there will be economic consequences. Of course China’s GDP growth has been speculated to be cut by nearly 3%, down to less than 5%. Of course, this would still be reflecting the state-given numbers. If we further adjust that the inflated numbers that some people suspect are boosted by up to 5%, we can see that in reality, China may be sitting near or below 0% average quarterly growth by the end of 2020. This will unfortunately have knock-on effects for the global economy. We’ve already seen reduced earnings estimations from a number of US corporations, notably Apple. Reduced earnings from service based businesses, especially theaters, being crowded public gathering spaces where illness could easily spread, will be hit particularly hard, as it will be difficult for those businesses to make up for the lost income during this time with consumers. As a result, the global box office numbers for 2020 have been lower proportionally to their domestic takes than what is typical, by nearly 10%. Usually a release in the US, upon international release will earn its domestic gross once more plus 10-30%. So far this year, the percentage is nearly 50-50 for foreign and domestic gross. This translates to tens of millions in lost revenue just for the US film industry.

 

Other industries, such as steel and manufacturing sectors will be hit by the virus, but at least have the ability to recover some of the backed-up production by performing overtime work and increasing capacity to meet the demand, though the longer that the quarantines remain in place, the more difficult it will be for production to catch up. Today’s more flexible supply chains mean that companies can more easily move their supply chains to other low labor cost countries, and will do so to a greater extent, the longer that this goes on.

First, the Chinese companies will absorb the first line of costs, then, the costs that they cannot absorb will be taken on by the US corporations further down the line, in an attempt to not raise prices, which can make margins very slim, before passing the remaining costs onto the consumers themselves. This process will take some time before US consumers really start to see the effects of this stateside. This fortunately means that with the exception of the already hurting US manufacturing sector, and some vulnerable service industries, the US economy likely won’t really feel the effects of this until late this year. However, while the impact that this has overall on the market and the economy might not be huge, it may push the US economy over a critical tipping point that we are approaching, along with the building consumer-debt and corporate debt crises that are looming on the horizon, we may find ourselves at the end of our long-running economic expansion.

Now, China has the biggest capacity to save their own business sectors, and by proxy, parachute this slow-rolling economic disaster. The easiest thing that they could do is subsidize businesses that were shut down during the quarantine. This could be direct subsidies, or it could come with some type of strings attached, but it is already clear that doing nothing would not only hurt the Chinese people and economy, but the downstream effects could be slowing the whole global economy.

 

Anyways, it had been a while since I had contributed anything to the global economic conversation. I can’t gloat about my correct predictions if I don’t write them down!