Things I Hate About The Kavanaugh Proceedings

In short, pretty much everything. To expand on that succinct answer though, I hate the rush, the time frame, the cynical kabuki performed by the GOP, the timid hemming and hawing around the veracity of the women’s claims despite the abuse and harassment that they already have received, and will likely continue to for the rest of their lives, regardless of the outcome of this confirmation hearing. I hate that we are retreading the same history in the same predictable way, and that only just now, with The New Yorker article published by Ronan Farrow, revealing a second person claiming that Kavanaugh sexually abused her, does there seem to be any genuine attempt to do more than simply pacify Democrats, suggesting that they have at least “followed the proper process”.  This however, is nothing but a sham, each time a development occurs, they move the next step back the minimum they feasibly can, still not giving enough time for an investigation to occur, but saying that they are being generous with their deadline extensions.

 

There is a double standard that is blatantly obvious between the two parties, with Democrats screaming about the process, and the GOP putting their collective fingers in their ears. It’s so discouraging to know that we are having the same kind of fight about the same thing, in the same situation. History has managed to repeat itself, but with a TV-drama twist of throwing in an additional accuser into the mix, just before the climax. At this point, we should be better. What should happen? Well, the right thing to do, the just thing, would be to perform an investigation, and then, once the investigation reveals its report, a hearing would be called, with Kavanaugh, along with the list of accusers and witnesses to testify. It’s absolutely appalling though that has yet to occur, when it seems like the correct thing to do.

 

Instead though, Republicans have decided to tip their hand heavily, showing their intense fear of losing the majority in the House, and the Senate within reaching distance, by trying to shove this nomination through as soon as possible, instead of doing the process slower, and more under the radar. Releasing all of the Kavanaugh documents early, and performing the due diligence earlier, and setting a confirmation date just a few weeks out, the whole proceeding may have even been able to slide through relatively unobstructed (though it does seem as though there may still have been problems from some of his documents), it could have dispersed the scrutiny through a number of news cycles, but like everything these days, it seems that even this is now flashy and dramatic, full of twists and turns every few hours it seems.

 

Finally, I hate the way the women are treated about this topic in general. People act as though women do this to seek attention, or at least, that is the narrative painted by the political right. Of course, women know that they’ll receive an inordinate amount of harassment for a claim like this, and subject themselves to potentially being the butt of jokes for decades to come. Death threats, harassment, for coming forward with their experiences. Some news organizations also give far too much credence and airtime to those who would so demean someone as to insult their experience.

 

Of course, now with a second accuser, things change, at least a little bit, but will it be enough to block the nomination? According to a number of GOP senators, simply, no. The hearing is a formality, but their minds are made up. It’s appalling on a number of levels, from how cynical it is, to the ignorance of refusing to change your mind regardless of evidence presented. The right has become ravenous to maintain their position of power, and, like an animal backed into a corner, they are lashing out, doing what they can to survive the outrage on the left.

The Sleeping Giants Stir

Like many who follow politics these days, I spend a lot of time gaming out possibilities for different sets of circumstances, then try to fit all those different scenarios into cohesive narratives. Of course each situation that you game out, once you take previous games into account, can produce pretty specific results, and a combination of possibilities related to power plays are rising.

 

During World War II, the United States allied itself with Stalin, a move where the U.S. allied itself with a tyrannical regime, in an attempt to stop a different tyrannical regime. These days, people who are pro-democracy would certainly find it a bitter pill if we had to align ourselves with dictators, when we, at least theoretically, have so many pro-democracy allies. Before about 2014, I would have said that the increasingly democratic and capitalistic China would be our most likely ally in a global conflict, which would likely have been led by Russian power. However, with China returning to a more authoritarian rule, despite its increasing financial muscle, and mutual allies of China and Russia becoming more plentiful, it seems more and more apparent that while the two countries may be quite different in their dictatorial rule, that their mutual interests have certainly brought them closer together.

 

China has made huge strides in the development of its soft power abroad, providing $66 billion to African countries to develop infrastructure. This almost bribe, while yes, should do wonders to develop the continent, and perhaps stabilize some regions, it also puts most of the continent squarely under the indirect control of China. Russia on the other hand, has spent much of its time developing its own power in the middle east and Europe, between its military efforts in assisting Syrian forces, or its propaganda efforts to disrupt NATO allies, effectively preventing actions being taken against them.

 

This leaves a handful of countries across the world, and the EU as the major proponents of democracy and liberalism that remain. With the United States controlled by Donald Trump, who is clearly pro-Russia, and feigns to be anti-China, a compelling case could be made that the United States could fall on the side of the axis powers this time around. Of course Congress would hate it, everyone would hate it, except Trump’s base, who would cheer him on as he hit the nuclear button. That doesn’t mean he would go to war though, as the window of opportunity to do so is  currently unclear, with the 2018 midterms just under two months away as of writing. Should the Congress be taken by Democrats, Trump would find it impossible to act without circumventing Congress’ approval, a move much riskier considering the amount of scrutiny that he would be under. In a situation like that, it would be more likely that Trump would keep the United States out of the conflict that would occur, trying to take credit for keeping American troops safe, using that as a part of his re-election campaign, assuming that he isn’t removed from office by that point.

 

Should something happen in the elections in November, and things go wrong for Democrats, things could get very bad for Democracy. The most likely scenario for Congress is that the House flips, and the Senate stays red, or is evenly split, making VP Pence the deciding vote. There is still a possibility that the House will remain under Republican control through the midterms, and a certainly non-trivial percent. Almost no effort has been made to protect the election process from interference, and with the increasing volume of warnings given by officials that not only are the Russians going to attempt to mess with the elections again, but that they have already begun to work to do so. Should the Russians interfere significantly to elect a GOP Congress, it would pay off in spades, such blatant interference would tear apart the US political system almost overnight. There would be a panic among Democrats, as there would now be two more years of Republican majority rule at minimum, with no clear way to recover the election process for 2020, paving the path for Republicans to seize power indefinitely.

 

That is of course the most terrifying scenario, and would be the darkest timeline. In such a case, China and Russia could throw their power around on the world stage with impunity for at least two years, without the US standing against them, or in the most extreme case, join them. Of course there would be riots in the streets across the United States, but our militarized police forces are actually fairly well equipped to quash such uprisings. According to today’s projections on fivethirtyeight, such an event is less than likely, as it seems quite likely that Democrats take the House (about 5 in 6 chance), and the Republicans seem likely to hold the Senate (roughly 2 in 3 chance), though this is down from when the model launched (where it was close to 3 in 4). While this reflects the increasing likelihood of Democrats winning in an unobstructed election, the chances of interference disturbing those results has not fallen.

 

The power players on our global stage are beginning to stir, and will soon awaken. I only hope that the United States can find its way to the right side of history in time.